Affected by negative factors such as lower-than-expected demand, regulatory uncertainty, and poor performance, the stock prices of European and American hydrogen energy companies have plummeted, forming a stark contrast with the booming nuclear power stocks.
Under the pressure of consecutive quarterly losses, the stock prices of hydrogen energy companies such as Plug Power, Ballard Power Systems, and Green Hydrogen Systems have nearly halved year-to-date, falling to historical lows. The stock prices of Nel, Bloom Energy, and ITM Power have also dropped by about one-third.
The S&P Kensho Global Hydrogen Economy Index, which tracks companies in the low-carbon hydrogen value chain, has returned to the levels of mid-2020, erasing the gains made during the green energy boom at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021.
Last month, McKinsey downgraded its forecast for green hydrogen energy in the United States by 70% for 2030, predicting that the country will fail to reach the 10 million tons of clean hydrogen production target set by the Biden administration. In July, the European Court of Auditors warned that the EU's goal of producing 10 million tons of green hydrogen by 2030 is "unrealistic" and requires a "reality check."
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Uncertainty over U.S. tax credit rules and strict EU regulations, coupled with low demand, have hindered the progress of projects. According to reports from McKinsey and the Hydrogen Council, only 18% of North American clean hydrogen projects and 5% of European projects are planned to be online before 2030.
While the hydrogen energy industry is in a bleak and low market, nuclear power has gained favor with capital. Amid the AI boom, the demand for electricity has surged, and nuclear energy, as a cleaner and more efficient source of energy, has regained focus.
According to a report from Bank of America, since 2019, the performance of nuclear power-related companies has been leading their peers. The nuclear energy ETF tracked by the institution has risen by 27% annually, while the MSCI World Index, which tracks global stocks with the same industry weight, has only increased by 14%.
The direct driving factor of the recent market trend is that Amazon and Google have successively announced investments in small nuclear reactors, promoting the deployment of the first batch of SMRs in the United States. Affected by this, many U.S. nuclear energy stocks have soared significantly, setting historical highs.
Among them, the stock prices of SMR developers Oklo Inc and NuScale Power have risen by 80% and 486% year-to-date, respectively.